Ron Rosenbaum, Writer

January 9, 2008

The Hillary Win: Just to Remind You…

Filed under: Uncategorized — ronrosenbaumwriter @ 9:18 am

Here was my November 16 prediction about the course of the Democratic primary contests:

Here’s the picks: Obama wins Iowa, Hillary second, Edwards third. Hillary narrowly beats Obama in New Hampshire, Edwards third. Edwards withdraws and endorses Obama before the South Carolina primary which Obama wins. I just don’t have a strong opinion about Nevada and I don’t think the race will be over after the early-state primaries, because Hillary’s got the big bucks to fight on through Super Tuesday. But I think in the end Obama wins the nomination. I’ll let you know who the next Prez will be once we know the GOP nominee.

Check it out on the site if you will. Except for a whisper thin Edwards second place finish in Iowa, all on the mark. Now if Edwards was smart…

p.s. Commenters please spare us you Hillary hating, Obama baiting, I’m just weary of it all. It all sounds the same and has been said a million times before. Or try this: find a single virtue in a candidate you otherwise dislike. It’ might be a good exercise for all of us. If we can’t then it’s likely we’re a little too partisan, no?

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January 5, 2008

Dis-endorsing Hillary: The One Remark that Makes Her Sore Loser of the Century

Filed under: Uncategorized — ronrosenbaumwriter @ 7:14 am

Okay, I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised. But this remark was not only ugly it was stupid. I’m talking about Hillary Clinton’s super-gracious opening remark in her New Hampshire campaign. “Iowa doesn’t have a good track record in determining who’s going to be the presidential nominee”.

I forget, when she was campaigning in Iowa did she make that point? Did she tell potential Iowa voters about how poor their political judgment was? What’s that you say? She only said it after they rejected her?

It was not just graceless it is likely to guarantee a loss in New Hampshire too. Doesn’t she have a clue that New Hampshire voters can figure out they will retrospectively be spat upon too if they reject her.

Yes, I did write an endorsement of her a year ago on the basis of idealism–that election of a woman president would be a civil rights victory. (this was before Obama announced) And on the basis of machiavellianism: that she was a cynical calculating machiavellian (i.e. a Clinton), but that was a virtue: we needed a mean, calculating, machiavellian president in a world full of danger.

But now I think she’s a second rate machiavellian, so transparent and heedless in her attempts at calculation, embodied in that sore loser kiss off to the Iowans she professed such love for up until the day after the election. In this respect she’s taken on the worst traits of her husband, treating voters the way her husband has treated women, only even more clumsily.

If we’re looking for a civil rights victory, well, there’s another candidate who can give it to us. In the post I reprint below I said, as far back as November 19, when Hillary led all the polls, that Obama had me “wavering” over my Hillary endorsement. He doesn’t seem much like a machiavellian but he seems so much smarter than anyone else in the field that the could play one when it’s needed. An idealist who knows how to play to win.

And so, not that anyone cares, but on the basis of her ugly, graceless, sore-loser, second rate machiavellian remark alone, I’m dis-endorsing Hillary.

January 4, 2008

Obama: I Told You So (and Why) On November 19

Filed under: Uncategorized — ronrosenbaumwriter @ 6:35 am

Just so no one will forget that I was perhaps the first (and most definitive) prognosticator to predict an Obama victory, I am going to reprint unedited my entire November 19 blog post here which flat-out, no-hedging, declared he would win–and why.

That would be close to seven weeks ago, all at at time when the big shot smart guys among D.C insiders, tv talking heads (and the polls) were all saying Hillary was inevitable:

Maybe I’m out of touch, but I don’t think Obama made a gaffe of any sort when he forcefully responded to the anti-immigration, anti-terrorism woman in a clip that’s being widely shown the past 24 hours.

To me it was perhaps his finest spontaneous campaign moment and one of the reasons I think he’s going to win.

If you haven’t seen the clip the woman was badgering Obama about “getting rid of the illegal immigrants” and terrorists, language which–whatever your stance on immigration–is offensive. (And by the way aren’t you getting a little tired of these Iowans who–because of the ridiculously unbalanced primary timing situation–are getting so arrogant about their supposed folksy wisdom? No, sorry, Iowa people, you’re not smarter than the rest of us, you’re just sooner; it’s the mere accident of geography not any particular civic discernment you’ve shown that is the only reason you’re getting all the attention now. Stop putting on airs of being rural savants).

Anyway it’s not surprising the immigrants/terrorists question drew a heated response from Obama, a response of the sort the Conventional Wisdom of the media has lately coalesced into saying he’s incapable of. Too nice, not a fighter.

But here’s what he said to the immigrant/terrorist questioner: “don’t think that I care any less than Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney about making sure that my daughters don’t get blown up.”

Wow! That remark packed heat, intensity and a kind of gut level understanding of the issue (plus fierce family values!) that complements his more visible studied and soft- spoken side.

I think the media’s gotten it all wrong about Obama and that he’s been slowly building a bond of trust with voters, cumulatively begun to connect with them on some deep level. I think he’s earning their respect for his solidity and dignity, and with that one remark demonstrated he’s no distant Dukakis-like figure. I say this as someone who’s endorsed Hillary but has begun to waver.

I think that one remark, straight from the heart is going to win him the primary and maybe the nomination.

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