Ron Rosenbaum, Writer

November 16, 2007

My Fearless Unprofessional Two-Month-Early Primary Predictions

Filed under: Uncategorized — ronrosenbaumwriter @ 1:59 pm

Okay I’ve spent too much time with the background noise of cable political analysts, wasted too much time watching pathetic excuses for “debates”. Too much time thinking about the nature of the campaigns and the candidates.

So I’m just going to risk, what, being wrong? I never pretended to be a professional political prognosicator so who cares if I’m wrong. If I’m right I’ll make sure to remiond everyone in the world.

Here’s the picks: Obama wins Iowa, Hillary second, Edwards third. Hillary narrowly beats Obama in New Hampshire, Edwards third. Edwards withdraws and endorses Obama before the South Carolina primary which Obama wins. I just don’t have a strong opinion about Nevada and I don’t think the race will be over after the early-state primaries, because Hillary’s got the big bucks to fight on through Super Tuesday. But I think in the end Obama wins the nomination. I’ll let you know who the next Prez will be once we know the GOP nominee.

Update. Here’s an idea: Predictions challenge! I challenge other, more well credentialed political bloggers to make their picks for the early Demo primaries as of now. (you’re free to change your minds, but let’s see what you’ve got to say now, just for the hell of it). Post them and link to mine. (Commenters welcome too.). Yes it’s (horrrors!) just horse race analysis, nothing profound so what’s the risk? What’s the harm of testing your instincts?

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7 Comments »

  1. Regrettably Hillary will win Iowa by 20 points, everyone else will be out before New Hampshire. Obama is not organized on the ground and Edwards is over

    Comment by charlie finch — November 16, 2007 @ 4:43 pm | Reply

  2. My guess is it’s going to be Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani.

    The fact that Rudy’s relatively pro-choice stance hasn’t torpedoed him yet indicates that it isn’t ultimately going too. Same with his multiple marriages, etc. The social right seems to be able stomach him, probably assuming he won’t take things too far left on his own.

    As far as Hillary, I agree with Charlie for the most part, though I think Obama and Edwards might make it look like a race, or the media might show it that way for dramatic purposes.

    Comment by Ed Hawkes — November 17, 2007 @ 6:45 pm | Reply

  3. Ron, thank you for posting my comment. The Novak column has produced depth charges from the Obama and Rodham camps, and it all started with your exegsis of THE RUMOR. In for a dime, in for a dollar? Best, Charlie

    Comment by charlie finch — November 18, 2007 @ 9:10 am | Reply

  4. I agree with Ron: Obama takes home a narrow victory in Iowa, which then starts the stampede of 200 virtually identical media obits of Hillary’s candidacy. She’s knocked out when independents have the chance to vote for Obama in NH. Bill Clinton lets loose with an obscentity-riddled tirade at the media. Edwards endorses and sucks up to Obama in quick order.
    The downfall of Hillary so dominates the news that Giuliani is able to keep above water despite so-so showings in early primary states, and then he goes on to win the nomination. Who wins next November is then determined by how sleazy Giuliani is and whether Obama can make any tracks in the South and states like Ohio and Michigan, where voters might tell pollsters one thing and do another at the ballot box.

    Comment by Russ Smith — November 18, 2007 @ 10:04 am | Reply

  5. I have no doubt Hillary will be the candidate. America is not quite ready for a mixed-origin candidate in Obama (hence the black community’s desertion rates), and his lack of experience is unfortunately more remarked upon than his beautiful ability to inspire people. I do think that Hill will be crowded against the rail in Iowa but not enough to lose. Same in NH. After that, clear sailing.

    Comment by Addie Pray — November 18, 2007 @ 3:07 pm | Reply

  6. I don’t think so, Ron. Like it or not, the more people see of the actual Hillary, the more they like her. It’s the other way around with Obama. After he’s given that inspiring uplifting speech, there’s not a great deal of there there.

    And I have to tell you, there are an awful lot of American women out there who are going to go into the voting booth having supported somebody else, and when it comes right down to it, vote for Hillary, warts and all.

    If it was just a matter of straight policy, I’d be voting for Kucinich. But ability to actually govern is even more important in many ways, especially in cleaning up the godawful mess Bush has made of things. At this point, it looks to me like HRC has the kind of natural command to keep it all under control– moreso than her husband, btw.

    Funny I haven’t heard the word “gravitas” so much from the punditocracy now that a woman is leading, but that’s what she’s got.

    I would greatly prefer somebody more to the left, but not at the cost of ineffectiveness.

    Comment by gyrfalcon — November 18, 2007 @ 6:17 pm | Reply

  7. Well, two months is an eternity in politics so it is impossible to know what might happen between now and Iowa and NH. Of course that isn’t going to stop me…

    Hillary! has two problems. One, she is the frontrunner and as a result all of the other candidates are running against her. This makes her vulnerable but if anyone has the political will to take it, it is Hillary!. Second, she hasn’t come close to getting over 50% in a national poll and has hard negatives. This could be a problem if she gets to the general election unless a third party candidate (like Bloomberg) gets in, which helps her like Perot helped her husband. Another Nader run could hurt in the Electoral College which is really all that counts. (Ask Gore.)

    Obama is articulate and telegenic but doesn’t seem to have a real grasp on running a national campaign and I blame his staff there. If they get it into gear, he could challenge.

    Edwards doesn’t have a shot in Hell but he could leverage his support as a King (or Queen) maker. Based on what I have seen, I agree that he is far more likely to support Obama.

    Here’s where you call the guys with butterfly net and a rubber truck. If there is a brokered convention, which I admit is unlikely, I say Gore gets the nomination.

    Comment by GT — November 18, 2007 @ 11:26 pm | Reply


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