Ron Rosenbaum, Writer

January 5, 2007

Football picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — ronrosenbaumwriter @ 1:31 pm

Wild Card weekend and I’m ready. Thank God for playoff football. I need something to take my mind off the real world. Love watching pro football, often watch–or have on–three games a weekend, plus one on Monday night, and playoff football is the best.

When I say I love it, I don’t mean I’m a “fan”, one of those people whose self esteem is bound up by what happens to the team that plays nearest his house. Fandom is for chumps if you ask me. I think people who really love the sport, or the televised realization thereof (Watching it on tv is for the true purist, going to a game you miss televised slo-mo replays and highlight reels) are not “we’re Number One!” type fans.

I don’t root for a team, I root for overtime, for drama, for great games, heroic comebacks, underdog surprizes, fantastic plays. I like to bet occasionally because it’s a test of my tv-gleaned knowledge. Over the past couple years I’ve been making small bets on playoff games with Gil Roth, proprietor of the estimable Virtual Memories blog.

But this year I’m not feeling strongly about the point spread on any of the games, i.e. I think the spread is wickedly on target in most cases which doesn’t leave many tempting betting opportunities. My weakness as a bettor is putting money on underdogs to beat the spread, and the way it looks to me on Wild Card weekend, the favorites will both win and beat the spread.

But, for what it’s worth, and at risk of major sports humiliation, here are my thoughts on the four games. The point spreads I’m quoting are from Saturday morning’s papers. Gil Roth and I agreed (I think) to put $25 down on whatever games we disagree on. Go to his blog to see what his thinking is and I’ll probably be back with rueful excuses after the weekend.

SATURDAY:

Kansas City at Indianapolis. Colts favored by 7. it’s shocking to read that Indiana has the NFL’s worst run-defense this season, but despite KC’s great running back, Larry Johnson, I just can’t see Peyton Manning not revved for a blowout to start the drive to the Superbowl he’s never won. TAKE THE COLTS MINUS 7.

Dallas at Seattle. Loved Parcells’ Faith Hill act last week. If his sheer rage alone could propel Dallas it would be no contest. But the Seahawks woulda/shoulda won last year’s Superbowl, if they hadn’t been robbed by refs’ phony holding calls, so they’ve got collective rage going for them. Plus the crowd and the ‘droid-like uniforms. TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS 3.

SUNDAY:

Jets at New England. New York teams always break the hearts of their fans/bettors. Okay not always. But Tom Brady vs. Chad Pennington? Come on. TAKE NEW ENGLAND MINUS 8 1/2.

Giants at Philadelphia. Did I mention that New York teams…Right, I did. And it sure looks like Eli is no Peyton Manning. TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS SEVEN.

I’ve never done this before. Picked four favorites to cover the point spread. But every once in a while you have to try to be smart rather than sentimental.

Over to you, Gil.

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4 Comments »

  1. Well, KC just intercepted a Manning pass and then missed a 23-yard field goal, on the play after a guard stepped on Trent Green’s foot, tripping him up. But Indy has only got 2 FGs for 2 trips to the red zone. So I don’t think it really matters who wins that game – they get hammered by either Baltimore or San Diego next week. Similarly, it doesn’t matter who wins in Seattle tonight – they’re both bums. The team to beat in the NFC is Philadelphia, because they’ve got the most heart. So my picks: Patriots, Eagles, Indy, Seattle.

    And since fools step in where angels fear to tread, I’ll venture a Super Bowl pick at no extra charge: Baltimore over Philadelphia.

    Well, halftime, 9-0 and I’m still beating the spread although Peyton is playing like he’s Eli and I’m not exactly feeling confident. I respect your win/loss picks but picking winners is easier than going up against the point spread isn’t it?

    Comment by Patrick Brown — January 6, 2007 @ 5:37 pm | Reply

  2. My picks are up (and delayed, thanks to WordPress; sorry)!

    Comment by Gil Roth — January 6, 2007 @ 6:43 pm | Reply

  3. Mr. Ron Rosenbaum,

    First of all, good call on the Philadelphia pick.

    Sorry to post this in the comment section of your blog, but there is no direct link to your e-mail address.

    The purpose of this inquiry is to ask you about an interview you did with Hunter S. Thompson in 1977. I’m working with Anita Thompson, his widow, attempting to compile a transcript of the interviews Hunter gave over the course of his career. Please contact me via e-mail, baw272@gmail.com, about any information you have about this rare, early interview with HST.

    Thanks a lot and I’m hoping the birds actually pull through this time.

    Sincerely,
    Brandon

    Comment by Brandon Wenerd — January 7, 2007 @ 10:50 pm | Reply

  4. Wow, you have earned my respect. Four out four is fantastic. Our host perhaps should move to Las Vegas.

    Comment by David Thomson — January 8, 2007 @ 3:14 pm | Reply


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